**All data is from NYT unless otherwise noted.***
It is simply incredibly hard to believe that we are averaging 150,000 new cases a day - again. As you can see below, EVERYTHING went up this week. Cases (20%), tests (33%) - and the most worrisome are hospitalizations (24%) and deaths (96%). At this point in the pandemic, over 95% of ALL hospitalizations and deaths are entirely preventable. Preventable.
CASES
Cases in the South continue to be the highest across the country. Cases in the South are DOUBLE the cases per capita than any other region at a whopping 75 cases per capita. (As a metric for pandemic containment, we want cases per capita to be below 10). None of us in the country are below 10.
If we look at the state by state and county by county level, it’s all red. Notice the Southern states. Cases matter when we talk about Delta for 2 reasons - 1) Because Delta is more transmissible (meaning 1 sick person can transmit to 6-9 others), and 2) It’s more severe than the other variants. We will see that in the next few maps as we look at hospitalizations.
HOSPITALIZATIONS
Compare the map below to the one above. I want to highlight that this is different than the other pandemic waves - it is worse than the other waves because Delta has a HIGHER risk of hospitalizations and deaths than the other variants. A new study this week showed this was the case - but, many of you who work on the front lines already knew that in your hospitals anyways. Those that are hospitalized (remember that the overwhelming majority of those hospitalized are unvaccinated) were also much younger, sicker, and had a higher risk of the need for oxygen. The risk of hospitalizations and deaths for those unvaccinated is MUCH higher too - 29 times higher. Let’s look at vaccination coverage with this same map to illustrate this point.
VACCINATIONS
Vaccinations are slightly going up. But, don’t get too excited about that - it’s only a 4% increase and still well below where it needs to be since, as a nation, we are at 52% fully vaccinated. Don’t get me wrong. I’m extremely happy that more and more people are getting vaccinated. But, remember it takes time for those to fully be protective for those people - around 4-6 weeks (or 2 weeks for J&J). So, we are in a race between Delta and vaccinations - and, Delta is winning in spades. (Data source here)
Now compare the map to the hospitalization map above. It is true that in some states (like Oregon), the case counts are high due to Delta - but the overwhelming of hospitals is not occurring (in general) in states with high vaccination rates. Again, look at the map above for that data.
THE BIG PICTURE
Epidemiology metrics regarding pandemics have never been just one data point. We need to now look at all of the important metrics taken together. I’ve sorted the table below by the burden on our healthcare systems. I did this because when we overburden healthcare systems, it affects all of us if we need care for anything for us or our families. We all know that hospitals are extremely overburdened right now with very sick (and younger patients). Over 95% of those patients are unvaccinated. I want to highlight a few things in the following table.
As a nation, we are averaging 30 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. Look at Florida (79), Alabama (61), Mississippi (59), Georgia (58), Louisiana (54), Texas (49%)…
-16 states are ABOVE the national average
-14 of those states are in the South
-All of the states have vaccination rates lower than 50% (other than Florida at 52%).
-South Dakota, you are in trouble. #Sturgis? Cases are up 115%, hospitalizations are up 101%.
When people say Delta is more severe than the other variants, that’s showing up in the hospitalizations. What I think we are about to see is that take into effect with deaths. There’s a delay from cases to hospitalizations and deaths. IF cases are plateauing (I’m not convinced of that yet at all because unmasked schools have started or are about to start in the country), we are now seeing the hospital surges with death surges to follow. If cases continue to go up with Delta, the trends in hospitalizations and deaths will also go up.
If you look at the table below at the deaths per 100,000, we are averaging 0.39 as a nation. The states noted in the table are double or triple the deaths than the national average for a >95% preventable disease at this point.
Schools need to have a mask mandate - especially in states (like Texas) with low vaccination rates, high case counts, and overwhelmed hospitals.
A final note to Louisiana. I have heard from several of you who live in Louisiana. Lots and lots of prayers and thoughts to you all as you deal with the hurricane effects and COVID. A huge shout-out to you healthcare workers braving the storm last night and in the recovery efforts happening now. Another huge shout-out to you mommas with littles doing your best to brave the worry you are feeling. Hang in there.
-FNE
I just feel defeated. My school district and county (Tarrant) refuse to go against the governor and protect our kids. My middle daughter is in a class with high masking which is a huge blessing. But, I kept my youngest (first grade) home to homeschool. This never ending cycle of going from bad to worse is exhausting.
Thanks again Emily! This is not great news, but I'm thankful for a place to come and get the "real" story! Okay, so I still have people cringing about wearing masks, and I think what is making so many parents afraid of their kids wearing masks is all the pseudo-science going around telling them that it will cause cancer and/or hypoxia and/or worse. A relative sent me these studies (along with a couple of thick conspiracy articles which I'm not including) about the 'harmful effects of wearing masks for long durations'. Would you mind having a look at them and giving your thoughts (or your circle of expert friends' thoughts). I could see right away that one of them did not even conclude that there were harmful effects - and using the "similar articles" links, I found other articles which also found no harmful effects. However, before I respond to my relative, I wanted to get your take on this stuff. Especially because you'd know which studies are not accepted/flawed/irrelevant better than me! Thank you - sorry this question is so long and sorry if you already answered this! You are amazing!
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18500410/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26179900/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3589840/