Week In Review: August 9th

I’m going to start doing a weekly update on cases, hospitalizations, etc for the country. Delta is changing things quickly (I don’t have to tell any of you that). So, I hope weekly updates will help you navigate where hotspots are and what to do.

OVERVIEW:

1. For the first time since Feb, the US reached 100,000 cases a day. Did that catch you by surprise? It should because look at that curve!

2. Cases increased to 100,000 per day in 6 weeks - An increase of 112% in two weeks. This increase is MUCH higher than the other curves in the past.

3. Hospitalizations also continue to explode and filling up fast, including pediatric units. Friends, the stories you are hearing on the news about hospitals being overwhelmed again and pleading with us to wear masks and get the vaccines are not overblown. This is real. And worse than previous surges.

4. This is because of Delta being REALLY contagious - with viral loads 1000 times more than other variants. Although vaccinated people don’t get as sick with Delta than unvaccinated people, they can still spread as easily. So, it’s a double whammy of HIGH viral loads and the ability to still spread even among vaccinated people.

5. Hospitalizations are deaths are LARGELY among unvaccinated (98%-99% are unvaccinated). Again, get those vaccines. Breakthrough cases are happening but not near as severe as unvaccinated cases. That’s because our bodies are primed to fight against the virus with vaccines.

6. Now, let’s look at hotspots and children.

Source: Here

HOTSPOTS (Source: Here)

24 states are at the HIGHEST level again. Yuk, friends. I was enjoying looking at this map in the summer and not seeing red. That changed quickly.

If we look at week-by-week change, check out some of the states.

1. Three weeks ago

   -Florida: 6,000 cases compared to 19,000 now

   -Texas: 3,400 cases compared to 13,600 now

2. Most states have tripled or quadrupled in THREE WEEKS. These high case rates are directly correlated with vaccination rates.

Positivity rates have also exploded - which means we are not testing enough! It also means there are a LOT of infectious people walking around that may or may not know it. There are 38 states above the 5% level, 12 between 10-20%, and 7 above 20%.

Mississippi has a positivity rate of nearly 50%. What in the world? Texas you are at 18%. This is simply unacceptable and should give all of us pause of how quickly Delta exploded, particularly in states with low vaccination rates. These positivity rates are scary, especially with Delta. This should change our mind on indoor church with masking required (more on that in another post this week), schools without required masking (again, another post coming on that), big events (like outdoor concerts and Sturgis), and just being around lots of people.

CHILDREN

We are all watching the data on children with Delta. Frankly, this is the part of this phase in the pandemic that simply makes me frustrated. We now have vaccines for a preventable disease - the vaccines still work really well at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. Delta has changed the game. We are seeing pediatric units filling up with kids being very sick with COVID. I have a 10 year old so I’m with you, mommas, on the worry of this. (BTW, my kids wear KN95 masks just fine - they can breathe and talk about don’t complain. Kids are stronger than we think. They are fine with a mask.)

1. Cases in children are up 84% in the last week of July and make up 20% of positive cases. That tells me that children are definitely getting sick and spreading. BUT it also tells me that 80% of cases are among adults. So, we cannot blame this on children like I’ve seen some in the media do.

2. I am going to a post devoted to children this week, so I’m saving the details for that one. But, our kiddos are not protected from Delta and can be quite sick.

3. I also want to talk about the recommendations in some states (like Texas) that are reckless when it comes to school. Masks should be required with Delta surging in all states - again, our kids are resilient and can wear masks.

WHAT’S COMING UP THIS WEEK AND HOUSEKEEPING

1. This week I plan to do a post on church and Delta and another on kids and Delta with a focus on school. If I have time, I want to do one on states like Texas and Florida that have wacky (and irresponsible) guidelines on masking, testing, etc. If this sounds blunt, it’s because Delta is too. We cannot mess around with this one.

2. I will ONLY look and answer comments and messages through Substack. If you are a paid subscriber, you get access to comment and interact with the other subscribers and myself on Substack (which is WAY more friendly and non-stress-inducing than FB comments - can I get an amen!). =) If finances are a barrier to becoming a paid subscriber, please let me know. I’ll gladly send you a gift subscription. Finances should never be a barrier for safe community that is kindof hard to find on other social media platforms. You can subscribe for the free version (that is emailed to you) or the paid version for commenting/messages. Remember the science is always free!

3. It might take me a few days to get back to your comments and messages, but I will. Thanks for your patience!

Stay safe, friends. Wear those masks and get those vaccines. We will get through this surge.

-FNE