Week in Review: September 27, 2021
And, a discussion on where/why hospitalizations and deaths are happening in the US.
Cases and hospitalizations on a national scale are slooowwwwwllllyyy coming down. Keep in mind - we are still averaging over 110,000 cases per DAY. Unfortunately, deaths continue to rise and average above 2,000 per day. (Data is found here unless otherwise noted). I want to show you the data on hospitalizations and deaths in the US - where they are occurring most and what it means.
RISK LEVELS
Even though cases are coming down, I still want to remind all of us that we are not out of the woods yet. Here’s the most recent map for risk levels in the country and most of us are still in the highest risk level of dark maroon and purple. Yuk. So, stay vigilant! Get those vaccines (or boosters if you’re eligible) and continue to wear those masks. We are getting better as a nation - but, not nearly out of the woods yet for comfort.
HOSPITALIZATIONS
Hospitalizations are still an important metric for us to follow for a few reasons.
Hospitalizations indicate overwhelmed hospital centers and overburdened staff on this never-ending pandemic.
The current vaccines protect strongly against hospitalizations. So, we see increases in areas with low vaccination rates.
Now let’s look at the areas with increased hospitalizations. I’ve sorted the below chart according to the top 10 states with the highest change in hospitalizations rates. The US average is slowing down with a -15% over the past two weeks and averaging 26 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. Keep that in mind. Now, look at the states below where hospitalizations are increasing - I want you to notice what some of the numbers mean in the full context of a state’s infection rates, rise in hospitalization, and vaccination rates by comparing the other states and the national average.
Notice Vermont and Maine are #1 and #3 for hospitalization increases. However, the hospitalizations per 100,000 are lower than the US average (8 for Vermont and 17 for Maine compared to the US average of 26, per 100,000). Also, these states have pretty dramatic increases in cases over the past two weeks - but, have high fully vaccination rates (look at the last column).
Now, compare these states with Montana and West Virginia (#2 and #4 for hospitalization change in the past two weeks). Notice the hospitalizations per 100,000 is double (41 for Montana) or nearly triple (59 for West Virgina) than the national average of 26. Also notice the vaccination rates are well below the US average at 48% (Montana) and 40% (WV). Vaccines work, friends. We see this over and over again in states with high case loads that lead to high hospitalizations and deaths in states with low vaccination rates. Let’s see this story play out when we sort these states by deaths per 100,000.
DEATHS
I sorted the states according to the highest deaths per 100,000 below. What do you notice?
To me, this was the most striking. What do you notice about the states included?
Do you see the trend of southern states and notice the vaccination rates for the states below? We have seen this during this Delta wave and these top 10 states in terms of deaths have not change considerably at all. Why? Neither have vaccination rates in these states. And, mask mandates are non-existent (and have been non-existent) in many of these states.
Do you also see the massive increase in deaths per 100,000 people when comparing to the national US average of 0.61 per 100,000? I know there’s still a false narrative going around that COVID isn’t that deadly and gives people a false security to not get a vaccine. (18 months in this pandemic and I’m still getting emails saying COVID is just the flu, not as deadly, and other bunk statements. The data below continues to show us in stark terms that COVID is not the flu. It’s deadlier if you’re unvaccinated.) All of the states below have double or over double the deaths per 100,000 than the national US average. So, your risk of dying if you are unvaccinated in these states is higher than the national average - particularly because the risk levels in most Southern states are still at the highest levels with high positivity rates, cases per capita, and no masking precautions.
Alabama, the deaths per 100,000 is 2.37.
Texas, you are at 1.03.
These death rates to me seem so unconscionable since dying from COVID is LARGELY preventable at this point. Leaders in these states, we need you to do better. Compare the deaths per 100,000 in your state to the national average to see how badly some of your states are doing with deaths.
VACCINATION RATES
The pace of vaccination had slowed considerably in the past few weeks. Around 650,000 vaccine doses were administered each day over the last week, down from more than 900,000 a day in early September.
That’s it for today, friends. Stay vigilant with masking, distancing, testing, and vaccines. We are not out of the woods yet. But, this wave will end.
-FNE